What a Perfect, Healthy AHL Season Could Look Like for Jiricek and Carbonneau
A look at two of the St. Louis Blues prospects and their projections for the 2026-27 season.
Here’s a fun one to chew on. Adam Jiricek and Justin Carbonneau both got a taste of pro hockey when the Blues elevated them into Springfield’s Calder Cup run, giving both fans and the St. Louis Blues front office something real to work with in regard to where they stand against pro competition.
Let’s play it out… if both of these guys start next season in the AHL and stay there healthy for all 72 games with no call-ups, no scratches, nothing, what does that season actually look like?
Before getting too ahead of things, it is worth saying up front that no one plays a perfectly healthy 72-game ironman season, especially not 19-year-olds adjusting to a pro schedule. This is purely a “what if everything breaks clean” exercise. With that out of the way, here’s how it plays out for each of them.
Adam Jiricek
The thing that jumped out watching Jiricek in the playoffs wasn’t anything that showed up on the scoreboard, but how unbothered and in control he looked with the puck. Pro forecheckers took away the space he was used to having in juniors, and instead of panicking or chucking the puck away, he just kept finding the right outlet pass. He was hitting his target at a high rate by the end of the postseason run. It was no secret that his hands and the read of the game are already pro-ready even if the shot isn’t.
Stretch that over a full season and you could see a guy who isn’t racking up points so much as quietly making his team’s transition game work. Jiricek could find himself racking up somewhere in the realm of five goals, 20-25 assists, about 25-30 points across the 72 games, with a shooting percentage that stays low. He has had plenty of international experience but he will still be figuring out how to get a shot through at this level. That being said, if he is producing a modest shot total, he is likely producing somewhere around 112 for the year.
Justin Carbonneau
Carbonneau is the opposite kind of problem to have. He scored 51 goals in the Q this past season doing exactly what you’d expect, beating people to loose pucks, and unloading from in tight. That game doesn’t need much projection work because it’s a simple formula: get to the inside, get shots off, repeat.
The grind of a full pro season is the real question mark for a power winger like him. At the end of the day, there’s a reason rookie forwards built this way tend to hit a wall somewhere around February.
Fans will need to temper expectations as the shooting percentage is going to come down some now that he’s shooting on pro goalies instead of junior ones. However, his shooting volume should maintain well regardless, so even with a dip to somewhere around a 10.8 percent shooting clip, fans could still reasonably see anywhere from 15-20 goals, another 15-20 assists, and a final stat line likely around 35-40 points, with a shot total near 175 for the season with the expectation that Carbonneau manages somewhere around two and a half shots a night. If he can manage this, he is a guy who’d be in Springfield’s top six from day one, and very likely starting on power play two while pushing for power play one deployment throughout the season.
Final Thoughts
This is a little different than my usual posts but it’s really the fun part of this exercise. Jiricek’s value over a full rookie AHL season could barely show up in the box score. For him, it’s all in the clean exits and the quiet stuff that makes everyone else’s job easier. Carbonneau’s is the complete opposite as he is a guy built to put pucks in the net and not think too hard about anything else. If they’re both healthy and in Springfield’s lineup all year, the Thunderbirds end up with one guy starting the play and one guy finishing it. Worth keeping an eye on whether reality cooperates.
Let him score as much as he can while cheating a bit then teach him the defensive side of the game. Good article
Thanks for this article! I think the biggest thing about Carbo’s game is he’s going to have to learn how to play better defense and not cheat up the ice. He clearly has the frame and the shot, but to be trusted at the next level he has to improve his play without the puck.